Where Students Register is Where They Vote: An Analysis of Out-of-State Student Registration and Voting in 2022

Methodology

flytedesk and Pantheon Analytics matched undergraduate student records from nine large universities in battleground states to the TargetSmart national voter file after the 2022 midterm elections. The nine schools were selected for their large student populations, sizable proportions of out-of-state students, and location in competitive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin). Approximately 62% of records matched using a combination of name, address, and phone number, with a confidence threshold of 80%. Records showing an age over 30 were excluded as likely erroneous matches.

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The Registration Gap

Overall, 62% of students in the sample were registered to vote. In-state and out-of-state students registered at similar rates (63% and 58%, respectively), meaning the unregistered population spans both groups. Of the out-of-state students in the sample, only 8% registered in the state where they went to school, half registered in their home state, and 42% were not registered to vote anywhere. The pattern held at nearly every school in the sample; at most campuses, fewer than one in ten out-of-state students registered where they attended school.

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The Turnout Gap

The registration choice mattered enormously for whether students voted. Out-of-state students who registered on-campus turned out at a rate of 66%, compared to 29% for those who registered at home: a 37-point difference.

This pattern held across eight of the nine schools in the sample, and the rates were roughly tied at the ninth.

It is important to note that self-selection may play a role in these differences. Students motivated enough to register on-campus may already be more civically engaged than those who don’t, meaning the act of registering on campus may not itself cause higher turnout. The data cannot fully resolve this question. Still, the magnitude of the gap is striking and consistent across institutions.

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The Opportunity

The combination of a large unregistered population and a wide turnout gap among those who do register on campus points to a significant opportunity for civic participation programs in battleground states.

Of the out-of-state students in the sample, 42% were not registered anywhere. The gap extends to in-state students as well: 38% of in-state students in the sample were also unregistered. Even among those who were registered, the vast majority of out-of-state students were registered in non-battleground states where their vote was unlikely to affect competitive outcomes.

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